Infertility Treatment Statistics – Yattalunga, New South Wales

Total Fertility Rate

I'm going to talk about the total fertility rate going to give a definition of what it means, and how to interpret it and then offer a simple exercise showing how we can calculate the total fertility rate using data from the American Community Survey and it's easier than you think. The total fertility rate is the most important common measure of fertility that we have It is an estimate of the average number of births per woman

over her lifetime. The reason it is so useful and important is because it allows us to project into the future and see what's happening with the population as far as growth or decline If the average woman is having about 2.1 children or more over the course of her lifetime then that's one for her and one for her hypothetical partner

and each generation will be replacing itself (the .1 is for people who end up not reproducing for one reason or another) On the other hand if the average woman has less than about 2.1 children over the course of her lifetime then eventually the population will start to decline if you don't have an increase in fertility or immigration or something else happening

Like other demographic measures this is not actually a prediction of the future it's a projection of current birthrates into the future that says what would happen if fertility rates that we see today for each age age specific fertility rates were to repeat themselves over and over again if this year happened over and over again The Centers for Disease Control collects birthrate data from states, from birth certificates

and their most recent estimate of the total fertility rate for the year 2013 is 1.86 You can see that U.S. is below that 2.1 cutoff at the moment, so if nothing changes eventually the population would start to decline presuming we had no immigration To put that in perspective over time, this is from the Population Reference Bureau

the last century shows a big spike we're all familiar with in the Baby Boom after WWII and the drop in fertility after that and another drop during the Great Recession that we're just possibly beginning to come out of which put us back below two births per woman on the total fertility rate To compare this to other countries, this is from the CIA World Factbook you can see the wide range from very low fertility countries

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